Circular Migration: Along the Ukraine/Russia and Armenia/Russia Corridors a Qualitative and Quantitative Approach
By Elliot Roper
In Partial Fulfillment of his Master’s Degree at Central European University
Department of Public Policy
Thesis Advisor: Evelyne Hubscher
This paper discusses the policy of circular migration and how if managed properly can be a countries greatest tool for development rather than foreign assistance. An extensive review of the work which has been done is included as well as the definition of the concept and what makes up circular migration. In addition, two case studies of Kiev, Ukraine and Aragatsevan, Armenia are looked at to see what, if any, statistically significant improvements have been made via circular migration at all. The selection of each is due to the amount of variance on them, as well as the potential for both low and high skilled labor migration. It is the hypothesis that if the concept is implemented properly we should see a significant improvement in the health, education, and SME (Small and Medium Sized Enterprises) in each community that was observed, and if not which factor was missing from the definition of circular migration that may have impeded it.
Table of Contents
Why am I choosing to write about circular migration or immigration in general? At an early age my father sent me into the fields to work with migrants from all over the world. I was raised practically by people from all over the globe in the Portland/Vancouver, WA area. Then, as a family we migrated to Utah, where my father was transferred for work at Intel, and then I migrated to the Washington DC for an internship and eventually full-time work for myself. It is with that motivation which I feel a responsibility to write for them and on their behalf as they have impacted my life as much, if not more, than my immediate family, for I too am a migrant. I also, have done a lot of traveling and seem to find myself more and more impressed with the people I come in contact that are not from the United States of America, but have made their way here for one reason or another. That is why I am writing so that they can be recognized as being part of developing their home country of origin or not.
Another reason for writing about this is based off my experience as a Peace Corps Volunteer from 2008 to 2010 and observed the way in which Diaspora did, and did not assist their home country. I noticed money being transferred for things that did not develop Armenia, while on the other hand noticed things that did. However, to remove as much bias from this I have selected the Ukraine/Russia Corridor, rather than the Armenian Corridor to write about. I also selected the case study due to the other Central Asian, former Soviet states that I have spent time in, such as Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan. It is imperative that we, as future policymakers, get immigration right when it comes to migrants as a tool for development for sending countries, rather than fat checks and credit cards being used to throw at for developing the countries.
To discount the ability of migrants to effectively develop their country of origin leaves a lasting negative impression that dependency on foreign aid will continue and marginalizes the actual ability inherent in each migrant to transfer human, social and fiscal capital to where the originate from. It is with this intent that I have chosen to focus my attention on in Ukraine as large number of Ukrainians still migrate to Russia for work; in addition, a small N case study of an Armenian village will also be included through the help of Peace Corps Volunteers working in that small, land-locked country so heavily dependent on remittances – fiscal capital sent back for assistance. Both the Ukraine and Armenia were selected since the variation on them, the dependant variable is so great: one is small and landlocked, the other large and shares a massive coastline along the Black Sea with large population using Russia as a means of employment.
This thesis is dedicated to Jon, Paige, Xenia and Raneve who were with me throughout the time I was a Peace Corps Volunteer and the travels we took, the times we shared and the eventual goodbye we said as we left the Southern Caucasus in Tbilisi, Georgia in July of 2008. Without them I wouldn’t have had the inspiration to write about migration and the people who migrate, the contributions they make to their foreign and domestic societies. To that end the remainder of this thesis will be looked at through the neoclassical theory of development to see if in fact, circular migrants are developing Ukraine and Armenia, via capital, labor, and technology, or if it is significantly being wasted on consumption and situations are not improving and the status quo is remaining the same.
Review of literature
Circular migration is not a new concept; if one digs deep enough evidence can be found in Africa and Indonesia. “Evidence from a large number of surveys demonstrates the wide-spread occurrence of temporary forms of population mobility in Indonesia and the many forms that mobility takes.”[i] This, however, dealt strictly with circular migration inside a country; the intent of this paper is to observe what is taking place outside a border. Nevertheless, as has been observed early on in Africa, there are some pitfalls that come with circular migration from urban areas, and will be explored later on in the case of Ukraine. “This evidence strongly suggests that increasing numbers of circular labour migrants of prime working age are becoming ill in the urban areas where they work and coming home to be cared for and eventually to die in the rural areas where their families live. This shifts the burden of caring for them in their terminal illness to their families and the rural healthcare system with significant consequences for the distribution and allocation of health care resources.”[ii] Most of the historical literature focuses primarily about in country circular migration, such as villages and small towns to capital cities. “”Circular” migration takes a social unit to a destination through a set of arrangements which returns it to the origin after a well-defined interval.”[iii] The social unit being the migrant and the agency, or institution is what makes the wheels of circular migration work so that permanent migration, especially illegal does not take place. For policymakers their role comes into play as to see that this does happen as efficiently as possible. Staying with internal, before moving onto external circular migration, the same author cites that, “Alpine villagers who served long years in the lowlands as schoolteachers, soldiers or craftsmen before their long-planned return to the mountains with the accumulated capital all represent variants of circular migration.”[iv] Throughout the literature, if one digs hard enough, like globalization, circular migration has been taking place for hundreds, if not thousands of years. What makes our historical/economic framework so interesting for both cases is that there was previously a large degree of circular migration taking place during the Soviet era. “The seventeenth- and eighteenth-century expansion of the Prussian state formally incorporated a number of eastern German enclaves and took in a good deal of predominantly Slavic population.”[v] Now that we have reviewed some of the cases pertaining to internal and some external during the soviet era, the cases, we turn our attention to the more external circular migration as a means for developing countries, and in this paper’s focus it has more to do with the policy as a means to trigger development in, not only Armenia and Ukraine but other developing countries as well.
To that end, it seems this old concept has resurfaced and found favor in the eyes of those within the academic literature both in Europe and the United States, and is beginning to be looked at as means for developing countries. It is therefore the purpose of this section to review the existing work being done in this area. “First, circular migration as a form of movement has long existed in human history. Yet these have been much less regulated sorts of movements leading to a rather harmonious interaction between two places.”[vi] For policymakers the question then becomes of how to appropriately regulate this movement between two countries. This implies that there must be an ease of access across borders, proper treatment of migrants, and an agreement that some of the acquired capital is transferred upon return. From that same article, Ozkul highlights this by stating,” This identifies mainly three areas to work on: promoting mobility and ‘legal’ migration, optimizing the link between migration and development, and preventing and combating ‘illegal’ immigration.”[vii] In order to prevent any increase in illegal migration, this infers that bilateral agreements must be enforced and contracts signed so that migrants do no overstay their visit. “The UK has specific agreements for temporary migrants in the sectors of hospitality and food processing. Spain and Italy accept temporary migrants from Latin American and Northern African countries mainly for their agriculture-related sectors. Indeed the fact that we are discussing circular migration schemes, i.e. continuous movements instead of one single time, reveals the present constant need for migrants in these economies.[viii] With agreements in place a shift therefore takes place inside institutions which allow for this ease of movement to take place. From that same article, “As migrants will be tied to their family members back home, this is a way to make sure that they will have to return back to their countries. One of the examples most cited by human rights advocates are the Moroccan workers employed in Spanish plantations under agreements signed by ANAPEC (National Agency for the Promotion of Employment and Skills).”[ix]
To that end we see there is a regulatory role for institutions to play in this old concept if it is to be used for development, as opposed to just remittances being sent back which experts at the World Bank would suggest. “Remittances, or the money migrant workers send home to their countries of origin, are finally recovering to pre-crisis levels. In 2010, remittance flows to developing countries reached $325 billion, this is very good news for developing countries. For many of them, money sent by their migrant workers living abroad is a very important source of external financing –sometimes even higher than the revenues obtained from oil exports or tourism. Thanks to the money being made in the U.S. by their relatives, millions of Mexican families can put food at their tables, just as Indians and Filipinos benefit the same way from the remittances sent from rich and oil producing countries in the Middle East.”[x] It is the argument of this paper that not remittances sent back, but also acquired human capital and social capital as well will contribute to the development of a sending country.
When researching such a complex topic, the migrant itself becomes a topic of conversation in the literature. “Migration of skilled workers from developing countries has increased substantially in recent years. Traditionally, such patterns raised fears on the ground of the associated ‘brain drain’ as human capital formation is considered to be of central importance to the development and reduction of poverty levels. Therefore, any loss of skilled workers through migration was considered harmful to the achievement of development goals. In contrast, the new body of literature emphasizes the positive incentive and feedback effects which skilled migration has on sending countries’ development as well as on other stakeholders.”[xi] It is the intent of this paper to not only focus on the highly skilled, but the low skilled laborer who is just as important for development as the highly skilled, and therefore what must be taken into consideration is the capital they bring back with them to the sending countries. By only focusing on one or the other, the compliments of both low and high skilled labor gets distorted as both complement each other, as is noted in the same article, “While most papers on the impacts of migration on development focus on remittances and low-skilled migration, we emphasize the effects of skilled return migrants which bring about the transfer of knowledge and skills.”[xii] This is the very reason that both Armenia and Ukraine have been selected as case studies to see also who has a bigger impact on development: the low or the high skilled, or is it a combination of them both?
Fortunately, some research in other case studies has been conducted, and will be looked into further. “In 2004, the potentially beneficial economic impact of external migration has been seized on by the government, which set out a blueprint for capitalising on migration as a development stimulus in its National Strategy on Migration (Government of Albania 2004). Covering the five-year period 2005–10, the National Strategy on Migration (NSM) aims to provide Albania with a more comprehensive and integrated policy on migration – moving from a series of ad hoc measures designed mainly to combat irregular migration to a more holistic policy based on migration and remittance management.”[xiii] It appears that circular migration seems to be more of a strategic policy decision for development finally, rather than observing migrants as “guest workers” who have often ended up in migrants overstaying their visas and remaining inside the county. The research carried out by the Mai shows promising signs of how two countries with the right partnerships can be beneficial to the developing country. “In these circumstances, success in the migration–development nexus in Albania can often depend on the pooling of family resources and expertise, rather than on the individual behavior of the returnee acting on his (or her) own (King and Mai 2008).[xiv] The family unit thus becomes synonymous with circular migration, as the migrant worker brings back with it human and fiscal capital, the distribution of it comes under scrutiny from researchers.” I think there are possibilities here, but it is difficult to have changes fast because the place was devastated by a very violent consumerist and capitalist development.”[xv] It is with this mentality that when large sums of money are brought back, development runs into a problem area of over spending fiscal capital and not enough on human capital. It seems intuitive that when free money – remittances- are given a human impulse is to spend, and if so, on what?
Moreover, is there a tendency for migrants to develop more effectively if they are from a different geographic location such as a capital city versus a village? One expert notes;
The rural-urban divide influences the development of specific forms of re-settlement on return. People from and returning to villages tend to be reabsorbed within family structures and to have looser contacts with Italy, mainly in the form of staying periodically in touch telephonically with their former employers and friends in order to keep the door open in case of future necessity and also just out of social respect, affection and loyalty.”[xvi]
Family loyalty also plays a key factor in how capital is distributed in our case studies of Ukraine and Armenia. We will eventually display the results of a survey sent to both Kiev and Aragatsevan in Armenia to compare and see what empirical evidences surfaces. There is also another element missing in the circular migration debate: students. What happens when a student travels from a developing country to a developed one? From the same article, Mai points out the following, “During the academic year 2004-05 there were 9,522 Albanian students studying at Italian universities, a quarter of all foreign students. At university level most students are not second-generation young people living with their immigrant parents, but ‘primary’ migrants.[xvii] Generally not working, what is the advantage upon return that students bring with them in the form of newly acquired skills and knowledge? “Younger people and women, particularly if students, were most critical of these aspects and particularly of what they saw as a lack of entitlement to individual self-expression in the name of the sacrifice for the family, a neglect of professionalism and the conservatism of Albanian culture.”[xviii] By nature, when one migrates from their home country it is hard to leave old customs behind, and assimilation is often difficult.
Staying within the European context, in addition to Italy, Spain and Morocco have also meddled with the policy of circular migration. “The frontier between Spain and Morocco –the Mediterranean Sea, the Straits of Gibraltar and the fences which surround Ceuta and Melilla– separates two social and economic worlds. Spain’s per capita GDP in 2010 was 10 times that of Morocco, a difference much greater than that separating the US and Mexico (five times).[xix] As the studies conducted for this paper deal primarily with Eastern Europe, it has been helpful to the review what Western Europe has experimented with already. “On the other hand, intensive agriculture experienced a spectacular development over the past few decades with the introduction of new techniques, most noticeably in the former quasi-desert areas of Almeria, on the south-eastern coast, a development that since it started was in need of non-local manpower.”[xx] From a low-skilled labor stand point, Western Europe or in this case, Spain has seen the benefits of circular migration as a policy. Part of the success is how it has been regulated to avoid abuse.
1. The creation of a bureau or delegation for the project in Morocco (in Casablanca, with two additional bureaus or extensions in the north of the country). This delegation has two purposes: to assist Moroccan employment services and Spanish employers’ associations during the pre-selection and selection processes and, once completed, to assist workers and employers’ associations to arrange bureaucratic and administrative requirements (labour contracts and visas, for instance) and to prepare the trip from Morocco to Spain.
2. The creation of a bureau or delegation in the city of Cartaya with the aim of assisting employers and workers during their stay in Huelva. This includes training, legal and administrative assistance and the coordination of social and health services to attend to any problem arising during the workers’ stay in Huelva.
3. The development of software for the on-line management of all stages of recruitment and to establish a tool for communication between the various agents involved, to monitor workers in the migration process and to report any incident that might arise.
4. The constitution of a new entity, the FUTEH, to develop the competences and work of the AENEAS-CARTAYA project once it has been completed.[xxi]
From the details above it becomes apparent that institutions with agreements set in place, allow for this policy of circular migration to take place void of any abuse, or at least as little as possible. This evidence shows that when an agency recognizes there is additional need for human capital, and if monitored properly, development occurs, unlike a simple quest worker program which has failed in the United States. There is also another element to this policy that makes the wheels of circular migration work, and that is technology. “The development of a software programme that contributes to the more efficient management of files is also remarked upon by the evaluator.”[xxii] From the neoclassical framework that we are using for this paper, we have reviewed the capital, labor and now we shall review the technological aspect of circular migration, which has been a part of this joint project between Spain and Morocco. “Planned activities include the improvement of software, the strengthening of the officials’ capacities, communication strategies and the management of the workers’ period of residence in Huelva.”[xxiii] In regards to this strategy it seems the combination of a number of factors exists in order to make circular migration work, they are but not limited to: strong bilateral agreements, agencies with the technologies to regulate migration, as well as migrants from both the low and high skilled sectors.
This next section will highlight the definition of the concept of ‘circular migration’ based off of an extensive review of the existing literature done at institutions. It is important to keep the aforementioned factors in mind when trying to identify this policy as one that can truly assist developing countries reach a status closer to those of the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China). Failure to appropriately address each factor of the policy allows for inconsistency and therefore a deviation to occur and the repercussions can have a negative effect on the target audience: migrants themselves, not just the countries or nations they represent. As it pertains to this paper, Ukraine and Armenia would suffer from a reputation that might portray them as strictly consumers, rather than developers of their country. It is the attempt of this paper to see if any development is occurring via a circular migration policy in Eastern Europe, as it appears to have done so in the West: both in North America and Western Europe. The subsequent sections will discuss the definition, followed by the methodology used in gathering information used for both a village, Aragatsevan in Armenia and a capital city, Kiev.
Circular Migration as a concept
While it has been established that this concept is not new, but rather regained the attention of many government entities as a way to mitigate migration and at the same time, fill certain employment voids existing in the economy, there are certain characteristics that make up the concept and its ability to work effectively. First, there has to be a sizeable population that is willing and able to travel abroad for work – labor. Secondly, there needs to be an existing agreement between the both the sending and receiving governments so as to make movement both legal and hassle free as possible, this is where the policy aspect comes into place and how to regulate the movement of migrants across borders. This implies the need for an agency/institution designed to monitor this so that it can proceed without as many interruptions as possible. Thirdly, a information communication technology (ICT) system in place that can track how much is being carried across borders and for which purpose.
The latter may seem like a breach of privacy into the lives of circular migrants; however, in order for a sending country to develop, it becomes imperative to know and have on record where the fiscal capital is being used. This also brings us back to the ICT system and documenting not just the movement but the sheer amounts of capital, both fiscal and human. By documenting human capital this allows us to see if there is actually a skill transfer being taking place, or not. It is the argument of this paper that with all these in place, a successful policy of circular migration can take place and therefore reduce dependency on receiving country as well as additional foreign aid from larger international organizations like the United Nations, USAID and the European Commission.
For the purposes of this paper we are bounding this to all migrants except for students who travel on student visas, but rather low-skilled and high-skilled labor who can actually take up employment upon arrival or who have been invited. The reason for this is we assume that students traveling abroad would already bring back with them human capital, and possibly some fiscal capital as well. Additionally, the two cases we will be looking at have happened since the beginning of the 21st century, as in previous sections we noted that some has already taken place in Western Europe, and what we are trying to identify is if it is possible for the same to transpire in Eastern Europe. At the time of this writing, it may become necessary to add additional cases as well from Eastern Europe as they surface in the literature as this topic has warranted the attention of many.
Circular migration brings with it the possibilities for less dependence on foreign aid, as well as remittances – money being brought over and used for personal purposes, which families have a right to. Where this paper argues, is that without the proper monitoring and evaluating of funds, remittances crossing borders has the potential to be wasted only on consumption, rather than on development of a community. Furthermore, circular migration as a policy measure brings with it all the elements and ability to harness, and involve those that work hard to support families and communities back home so that some improvements can be seen each time upon return. Without this type of regulation from local governments, it will become increasingly difficult to know what type of, if any, activity is taking place at the grassroots level. For example, is money being spent more on education, health and SMEs, rather than purchasing of non-essential equipment, that we in “the West” take for granted, like flat screen televisions and expensive new automobiles. To that end, gathering this type of information is a delicate matter as asking families to disclose their earnings from aboard can be a sensitive matter. The methodology used will constitute the next section.
Due to the sensitive nature of the information being gathered, and in full disclosure of how I am going about collecting data, I have enlisted for the case of Armenia, friends who I served with during my time there for that particular village. See Appendix B for a sample of the surveys. The translation work has been done by a local Armenian counterpart assisting in this project. For Ukraine, both I and a friend that I met in Almaty, Kazakhstan performed the translation that will be distributed to communities in Kiev, Ukraine through Peace Corps Volunteer involvement as well. The reason for this is that no other group can get as close to the families as they do for over two years long and the level of trust needed in order for them to divulge the type of information we are looking for.
To that end, the survey method which will take place is during the summer of 2011 and the findings that come as result will be analyzed and put forth towards the end of this summer so that we might gain a better understanding of what is taking place inside both corridors, in either the formal or informal market. To reiterate it is the hypothesis, that with a circular migration policy in place, assuming all factors are accounted for, we should see a significant improvement in the areas or health and education. If we do not, then we need to re-evaluate and see which factor was missing, and/or how exactly the monies were spent.
For the sake of confidentiality purposes, we have removed all names, and ordered the families according to a number from 1 to 30. It has also been communicated that this is strictly for the purposes of a research paper and will not be published in a local newspaper – assuming one exists. This again is one advantage to using existing volunteers rather than conducting one-on-one interviews which could make the interviewee uncomfortable. The survey’s are being transferred via email to my personal email account and will be held there for safe-keeping so that a proper analysis can be conducted at a later time during this summer alongside my thesis advisor so that we might narrow down the findings to extrapolate from the data what is taking place inside each corridor. The data points that we are most interested in are education, is enrollment and graduation rates up due to remittances being used properly. Secondly, are there fewer visits to policlinics as a result of better nutrition habits from either human or fiscal capital being transferred, or has nothing changed and remained the same. Thirdly, are there more SMEs being established based off of both fiscal and human capital transfers from receiving countries, or is it all going to consumption. I will be comparing the national average, with those specific communities in Kiev and Aragatsevan village in Armenia, to see if remittances are being used properly within a correct circular migration policy framework. Again, this is time-bound with significant variance on the dependant variable should yield findings that have yet to be added to the existing body of literature out there in Easter Europe and make a substantial contribution. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, the reconstruction effort has been undertaken, but how exactly have migrants played a role in this? This is really what we are after, how have circular migrants contributed to the development in these three critical areas, health, education, and SME. If the hypothesis is correct, we should see an increase in SME, a decrease in visits to hospitals and clinics, and an increase in graduation and attendance rates in each of the two communities compared to the national average in Ukraine and Armenia. Close examination of the findings with my thesis supervisors will help to determine if we can reject the null hypothesis and nothing is happening, or even worse, degrading further.
Case Study 1: Armenia-Russia Corridor
During the summer of 2011a survey [see appendix B] was sent to 30 random households from Aragatsevan village population around 7,000 and about an hour and a half outside of the capital Yerevan. It was asked of them about how they spend remittances they receive from family members [circular migrants] abroad living in Russia. The results were mixed; however, the results do show some significance on spending habits in some vital sectors of the economy requisite for development according to our theoretical approach. The current exchange rate of $1 equals to 373.500 AMD.[xxiv]
|How much money comes from abroad?||Please be specific, which of the following is spent on: a. health, b. education, c. community, d. other, please specify.||Which relatives are abroad and what do they do for work?||How frequent do they visit?|
|500 dollars, monthly||a. 100, b. 0, c. 300, d. 100||My husband, he is a driver||once a year|
|no money||a. 35000, b. 5000, c. 4000, d. 200000||don’t have||don’t visit|
|I receive no money||a. about 350000, b. 200000, c. 45000, d. 300000- unexpected outcomes, birthdays, baptisms, etc.||I don’t work||One time in five or six years in case of death, illness, etc|
|1000000 dram annually||a. 100000 dram annually, b. 20000 dram annually, c. 150000 dram annually, d. 50000 dram monthly on food, 100000 dram (clothes, etc) monthly||my father, he is a worker||one time a year|
|500 dollars||a. 80000 dram annually, b. 300000 dram annually, c. 100000 dram monthly, d. 90000 dram monthly||My mother lives abroad and he is busy with construction work||One time a year|
|don’t receive||a. annually about 40000, b. 10000 dram monthly, c. 50000 dram monthly, d. isnt enough for extraneous outcomes||My sister and my friend live there, my sister does not work and my friend works at a kindergarten.||My sister visited once in 10 years, my friend visits every year.|
|don’t receive||a. 300000 annually, b. 20000 dram monthly, c. 20000 dram monthly, d. 50000 dram (food, clothes)||My sons, workers||One time in two years|
|don’t send any money||a. 5000 annually, b. don’t spend, c. 10000 monthly, d. 5000 monthly shopping||sisters and brothers but don’t help us||one time in 10 years|
|don’t receive||a. 20000 annually, b. none, c. 20000 monthly, d. 20000 monthly- food||brother’s son- construction worker||one time in two years|
|100 dollars monthly||a. annually more than 100000 dram and more, b. don’t spend, c. 10000 dram monthly, d. more than 100000 dram monthly||brother and brother-in-law||one time a year|
|don’t receive||a. 30000 annually, b. 1000000 annually, c. 200000 annually, d. 1000000- clothes, food, other outcomes annually||nobody||don’t visit|
|don’t receive||a. 600000 annually, b. 150000 annually, c. 100000 annually, d. 200000 shopping||don’t have any relatives||don’t visit|
|—||a. 300000 annually, b. 0, c. 300000 annually, d. 600000 annually shopping||My aunt with her family||don’t visit|
|don’t receive||a. 500000 annually, b. 200000 annually, c. 150000 annually, d. 300000 shopping||a son- programist||two times a year|
|don’t receive||a. 20000 annually, b. 0, c. 250000 annually, d. 700000 clothes, food, shopping||don’t have any relatives||don’t visit|
|don’t receive||a. in need, about 5000, b. getting professional literature, about 10000 dram, c. 20000, communal outcomes, d. 100000 to 150000 shopping||Russia, private activity||don’t visit|
|200000 dram||a. 100000 annually, b. 50000 annually, c. 30000 monthly, d. 300000 monthly- shopping||brother||every year|
|I don’t receive||a. about 4000 dram monthly, b. 5000 dram monthly, c. 18800 dram, c. 10000 dram monthly communal outcomes||My parents-in-law||they don’t visit|
|None||a. 100000 annually, b. 200000 annually, c. 50000 annually, d. 800000 annually||My relatives are engineers and have a private business||Once for three or four years|
|10000 dram monthly||a. 30000 monthly, b. 200000-300000 annually, c. 30000 monthly, d. 100000 monthly||My son||Once every four years|
|100000 monthly||a. 0, b. 5000 monthly, c. 5000 monthly, d. 100000 monthly- clothes, food, other shopping||My brother||Once or twice a year|
|200000 monthly||a. 30000 about, b. 5000 monthly, c. 5000 monthly, 120000- food, clothes, shopping||My son, he is a businessman||Once or twice a year|
|We don’t receive||a. 40000, b. 200000, c. 5000 monthly, d. 10000||My father, he is a cook||Once a year|
|2500 ruble||a. 60-70000 annually, b. 0, c. 0, d. 16000 for bills monthly||My sister, she is a shop assistant||One time for two years|
|I don’t receive||a. 100000 annually, b. 0, c. 10000, d. 15000||My sister is a manager in a restaurant||One time for five years|
|I don’t receive||a. 20000, b. 200000, c. 3000, d. 10000||My sister lives abroad but she doesn’t work||She doesn’t visit|
|28 .50000 dram||don’t receive||a. 30000, b. 200000, c. 10000, d. 20000||My aunt and uncle but they don’t work||don’t visit|
|I don’t receive||a. 10000 annually, b. 0, c. 10000 monthly, d. 40000 monthly||My brother, he doesn’t work||they don’t visit|
|50 dollars||a. 100000 annually, b. 0, c. 50000 annually, d. 50000 annually||My son, he is a worker||Once a year|
|31I don’t receive||120000 dram||a. 30000 annually, b. 50000 monthly, c. 0, d. 0||My sisters, brothers and my husband. My husband is a worker||5-6 years one time|
From theses 30 surveys, we found that 18 households did not receive any money from abroad, and that the remaining 12, spent significant amounts on healthcare and education. Since we are focusing on those that receive assistance, we shall now take a closer look at what commonalities, if any exist, between the 12 households; for example are they low or high skilled labor and time spent back in the Aragatsevan. It is the intent to see if the money spent from remittances goes towards education and health care, rather than other activities.
If we take a look a household number 3, we notice that personally the majority of remittances go towards other activities followed by, community and then education and health. For the sake of the argument, let’s assume that other involves day-to-day consumption such as food, rent, and utilities. What makes it of particular interest is there are no visits on an annual basis; however, money is still sent and is spent consumption, followed by the other factors necessary for economic growth. Now if we take a closer look of a household where more frequent visits occur, we should see a difference in the dispersions of remittances. For example, the last household that was surveyed shows a 5-6 times a year visit and no money spent on other items, but rather more of a focus on healthcare and education, despite not receiving any remittances. This is primarily what our hypothesis was after, less remittances and more visits bringing with it human capital that can be spent on healthcare and education. Unfortunately, this seems to be the strongest outlier of all households surveyed. Despite this we see from the other households, that there is a strong correlation between yearly visits and remittances spent on significant factors necessary for economic growth. Examples can be found in households, 5 and 6, where even yearly visits bring with it not only fiscal capital but we can assume some human capital that is wisely transferred on education and healthcare from Russia.
As we turn our attention now to an urban setting, Kiev, it will be interesting to see how the two environments’ compare with each other. Typically we see a more high-skilled labor force migrating from a capital city, whereas from Aragatsevan we only saw 3 what would be considered high-skilled labor in, a programmer, businessman and an engineer.
Case Study 2: Ukraine-Russia Corridor
This case study will also be particularly unique to see how a random sampling of 30 households compares to that of a rural, village environment. Some experts have even noted there needs to be data that exists. “There are gaps in research on circular migration, on immigration and notably on transit migration and (forced) migration into Ukraine, and on remittances and generally in qualitative research. Ukraine has only recently developed a migration policy; simultaneously it is playing an increasing role in EU migration control considerations, a process dubbed the externalization of EU migration policy. This calls for research on various types of migration policy, the integration into the European migration agenda and enforcement matters.”[xxv] This is the intent, as has been mentioned before, is to extrapolate from a small sample size if remittance from circular migration make a difference, as up until this point little remains inside Eastern Europe. “Ukraine migration is characterized by temporariness, irregularity and circularity. Remittances seem to play a major role in developing the country or simply to survive after a massive slump from one of the wealthiest part of the Soviet Union to one of the poorest countries in Europe.”[xxvi] Part of the inspiration that comes from selecting Kiev has to do with a trip taken from Batumi, Georgia to Odessa, Ukraine and meeting workers aboard cargo freighters shipping material all the way from Central Asia to Europe.
Due to time constraints, at the time of this writing a qualitative research from existing literature will be used for Ukraine, and the inability to travel to Ukraine during the summer of 2011. “Since the early 1990s, Turkish workers have begun to move to the neighboring former communist countries such as the Russian Federation and Ukraine, often in the form of circular labour migration.”[xxvii] What makes Ukraine and Armenia such fascinating case studies for circular migration is that neither needs a visa in order to enter into Russia, and is widely known for having ease of access inside Russia. As we have seen prior, from the household surveys, remittances do not always translate into development. Some scholars have noted this as well, “Countries with generous immigration provisions, such as Ukraine, also have the potential to become important crossroads for transportation of undocumented migrants.”[xxviii] If we refer back to our criteria for circular migration, this ease of access to and from Ukraine, it warrants the use for our study.
Another aspect of the criteria for circular migration also fits in with Ukraine and several other former Soviet states, and is a prime example of how, if used properly can develop a country’s economy. “The Russian Federation has concluded the most bilateral agreements (with 9 out of the 11 CIS Member States). Belarus has concluded the next largest number of bilateral agreements, with six other CIS countries. Kazakhstan and Ukraine have concluded four each.”[xxix] With this ease of access along the Black Sea and into Russia we should be able to notice substantial economic growth. “Many migrants had legalized their status and launched businesses, especially in the food industry and trading at Kiev markets. In contrast, many African migrants were informed about Ukraine as an “easy” transit country to Western Europe by countrymen who had studied in Ukraine during Soviet times.[xxx] A significant advantage for making circular migration work for development, in addition to the criteria mentioned earlier, is a history of migrating within a geographical framework which both Armenia and Ukraine enjoy. By allowing freedom of movement for so many years, and allowing visa free entrance, each country enjoys the ability to bring with more speedily human and fiscal capital which should result in an increase in GDP since 2000, which a quick glance at the World Bank data will indicate that there had been an increase in GDP until 2008.[xxxi] Another area worth exploring is the informal institutions, or networks. “Research has shown that labor markets in the Russian Federation and Ukraine, for instance have been closely linked with sending countries through the interpersonal and organizational ties surround migrant networks.”[xxxii] The research done by the World Bank, and others, shows that even early on, informal networks – such as the family – can provide the wheels for circular migration to work properly for development.
According to data collected by the International Organization for Migration (IOM) Ukraine provides us with some insight into just how Ukraine is developing from circular migration. “GDP (2010 estimate): USD 136.6 billion. In 2008, Ukraine’s economy was ranked 45th in the world according to 2008 (GDP) nominal. However, it was greatly affected by the economic crisis of 2008 and as a result contracted by 15% in 2009, with fixed investments falling 46%. Since October 2008, the national currency Hrynia has lost about 40% of its value to the dollar (as or 2011).”[xxxiii] Despite the financial crisis of 2008, still Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has poured in at “USD 5.3 billion”[xxxiv] With the sheer size of Ukraine’s population of over 45 million, a household survey of 30 families, to keep things consistent, would require a more extensive, time consuming approach for accurate data, which is one recommendation to institutions involved in this type of work.
The other sectors based off of World Bank data show significant fluctuations in health and education. Enrollment in education has dropped from 2008 to 2009 by roughly 1%, however, life expectancy has risen by 1% from 68 to 69.[xxxv] It is still difficult to infer anything from these statistics, though circular migration is occurring but to what extent it is helping all three of the vital sectors: health, education and Small and Medium Enterprises, becomes difficult. We can say that Ukrainians are living longer, but fewer students are being educated and that the private sector is still in position for improvement, which might be interpretive as more circular migrants are not returning, but remaining in Russia as well as other countries for employment, thus increasing the rise in unemployment.[xxxvi] It is possible with the ease of entry into Ukraine, that migrants may be filling the void left by those Ukrainians who have left for work elsewhere. “Overall, several ECA countries are among the top 10 sending and receiving countries for migrants worldwide. Russia is home to the second largest number of migrants in the world after the United States; Ukraine is fourth after Germany;[xxxvii] From a policy standpoint, this presents Ukraine with a profound dilemma on how to use remittances from circular migrants, rather than foreign aid from international organizations, as a means to develop.
It is at this juncture that the EU has stepped in as a regulatory body. “The member-states are happy for the Commission to use the EU’s collective weight to negotiate better readmission pacts. When the EU as a whole negotiates a readmission agreement, previous bilateral arrangements are superceded. So far the EU has concluded readmission agreements with Albania, Hong Kong, Macau, Moldova, Russia, Sri Lanka and Ukraine.”[xxxviii] These new “readmission agreements” now allow for additional options for markets, and do not restrict Ukraine workers from just migrating to Russia, but to other Western European markets as well. “This was important forgiving West Europeans conﬁdence since the EU’s common frontier now reaches the Balkans, Belarus, Russia and Ukraine.”[xxxix] It will be interesting to observe in the coming years if these new agreements provide Ukraine, and eventually Armenia (possibly) that these new markets will allow for a variety of skills to be transferred so that more money can be invested into education and the private sector, rather than just reliance on Russia for its sole market place. This new measure by the EU has referred to this as their “neighborhood policy”, which may come into conflict with Russia as it approaches its borders. “As part of the ENP, the EU has signed bilateral action plans with twelve partners (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Egypt, Georgia, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Moldova, Morocco, the Palestinian Authority, Tunisia and Ukraine). And more are in the pipeline.”[xl] It appears that not only along the Black Sea, but elsewhere the EU is seeking to exert its own influence further east, despite reluctance on the part of some member states when it comes to assimilation.
As Western European states become more flexible with their agreements and policies as it moves eastward, an essential part of circular migration is the treatment of them so they can return, or even want to fill the employment gaps left by receiving countries, and this includes but is not limited to the trafficking of human beings. “As part of the ENP, the EU has signed bilateral action plans with twelve partners (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Egypt, Georgia, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Moldova, Morocco, the Palestinian Authority, Tunisia and Ukraine). And more are in the pipeline.”[xli] It is difficult, if not impossible to argue that this is a crime not to be overlooked when dealing with any policy issue related to migration. As it pertains to circular migration, the IOM is the only know existing body responsible for blowing the whistle when it comes to these types of issues. “The exceptions concern the addition of Ukraine, for which new scenarios have
been developed, as well as a whole set of new assumptions concerning international
migration flows.”[xlii] By sharing a border with Russia, and being near the crossroads of East and West, it becomes increasingly difficult to monitor not only the economic development and remittances, but also the safe return of circular migrants from Western European countries, as well as those working in Russia. From that same study the following forecasted information regarding health, “life expectancy in Ukraine in the presence of HIV/AIDS epidemics
would range between 61.6 and 63.4 for males, and 71.0 and 72.9 for females, which
encompasses the values assumed in the current study, equaling 61.8 and 71.8 years, respectively.”[xliii] Part of the role of both informal and formal institutions so vital for circular migration is to ensure the safe return of migrants so they are physically able to even contribute to their country’s development.
Throughout the course of this thesis, two approaches have been taken to shed light on what is taking place in this new phenomenon called circular migration. Initially, it was revisited as not a new, but instead an older concept revitalized sometime in Europe as a means for both sending countries and receiving countries to meet economic demands. A quantitative approach was applied to a village in Armenia using household surveys to try and observe if circular migration was having an impact on development and the results did vary and so it is difficult to conclude anything concrete, but one particular occurrence shows that the more frequent the visits, the more likely it is that money will be spent on education, health and the community development, rather than consumption. While consumption is necessary for carrying out day-to-day activities and to sustain life, for developing a community, let alone a country, diversifying that money is an essential component to reduce dependency on foreign aid, and FDI which too often effects, or impedes the progress of developing countries like Armenia and Ukraine.
The qualitative approach for Ukraine was due to time constraints and an inability to visit Kiev, or make contact with Peace Corps Ukraine to handout surveys, but would be a policy recommendation for those conducting research at international organizations such as the IOM and has been attached for the purpose of accessing this thesis and exploring the possibilities that Kiev may have to offer. Instead, a review of the literature based on existing research was used and particularly as it pertains to the EU and their involvement in regulating this type of migration and the obstacles they will need to overcome as they seek to enlarge their borders closer to Russia, where Ukraine participates most frequently for work. Also highlighted was the issue of human trafficking briefly. This is an important aspect of circular migration, as when entering a receiving country it becomes imperative that policymakers insure that the health of the migrant is not jeopardized in any way so that when returning no disease or loss of human capital takes place. The role of institutions plays a major role in this venture, both formal and informal. By institutions, this requires agencies to be set up in order for the monitoring of migrants, while still respecting the privacy of the work they do, but also in the sending countries upon return to monitor their health and the activities they engage in upon return with fiscal and human capital.
The role of institutions is the key element, as bilateral agreements are in place for both Russia and the EU now. What become of the most important matter are the informal networks that are formed in both sending countries. As contacts are made abroad and expanded in sending countries, even at the family level, a monitoring system in place will allow researchers to observe returned activity, until then it will remain inconclusive if circular migration as a policy is having any impact on developing countries. I would argue in conclusion that what really triggers circular migration is the desire to return to the home country and visit the most informal of networks, the family, and what keeps permanent migration from occurring is not only the socio-economic conditions, but a historical record of not wanting to be in the community where migrants were raised and seek out new environments where talent can be utilized and maximized. This is what often prevents return migration, and stagnates growth in developing country, often referred to in the literature as “brain drain”. For lawmakers and policy makers it becomes imperative that ICT systems are in place just enough to allow personal freedom, but with it accountability to the place of birth and origin, otherwise the more developed countries will experience tax dollars being wasted on projects that might as well have been done by Diaspora themselves, and possibly even better and more efficient.
Thesis Project Report
Question: What impact has circular migration had on education, health and SME in Kiev, Ukraine and Agratsevan, Armenia?
Circular migration has surfaced out of the need for governments to better manage the complexities accompanying migration, and in particular it will be argued that with the proper dual-institutional investments lacking previously, circular migration can significantly impact the development of sending countries, as opposed to just remittances which seem to dominate the literature on development and migration. Applying the neoclassical theory of economics as a framework for better insight will allow both developmental economists and public officials to realize that people are moving for many more reasons than just being poor and wanting to work, but to develop their home countries.
Review of Literature
Migration around the world is, to say the least, in disarray. It does not help matters when the powers that be in Germany, France and England each have publicly stated that “multiculturalism” has failed. It appears this concern has caused new discussion in the debate about how to effectively deal with immigration policy dilemmas. Circular migration has recently entered various circles, and it is the intent of this section to identify what we know so far based on the debate taking place at the institutional and governmental levels, as some prominent experts have noted that it is nothing new, but rather a refinement of older concepts. Globalization may be the prime example, a concept that has actually been occurring for hundreds of years, but the internet catalyzing it, thus creating more interest in an old subject for the general public and policy makers.
Much of the discussion seems to identify where this concept originated and if there is any significant difference between this, and guest worker programs familiar to many. “For the public at large, the concept of ‘circular migration’ is new. But actually it was used previously by numerous European Institutions including the European Commission.”[xliv] The question then remains, why are so many analysts and policymakers using the term? In the European context, it seems plausible to assume the repeat temporary migration patterns used previously, needed to be streamlined further to reduce several negative consequences spilling over into their societies and for the livelihood of migrants themselves. Moreover, many suggested that circular migration serves more of a development-focused approach to migration, and has found favor in the eyes of experts. “The appeal of circular migration is not hard to see. It offers destination countries a steady supply of needed workers in both skilled and unskilled occupations, without requirements of long-term integration. Countries of origin can benefit from the inflow of remittances while migrants are abroad and their investments and skills upon return.”[xlv]
Remittances – the flow of capital from migrants to sending countries – has been analyzed by economists at the World Bank and adopted as a new, highly effective method for development. Unfortunately, what they fail to investigate deeper are the investment channels of the billion crossing borders. “It is crucial to evaluate whether the negative effect of remittances – namely the creation of a subsidized economy – is reduced with circular flows as no clear assessment of this issue exists.”[xlvi] To that end, circular migration has been enacted as a mechanism, if implemented properly, which will balance out the fiscal with the human capital required from economic growth. “Circular migration can contribute to a reduction of unemployment via flexible adaptation of labor supply to labor demand. However, circular migration workers usually do not gain human capital in receiving countries.”[xlvii] This would seem quite accurate as monitoring of remittance flows shows an increase GDP, while overall development does not change much over time.
The emphasis placed on circular migration’s “win-win-win” does offer a degree of optimism for sending countries. It is important to bear in mind that not all sending countries are developing countries; however, for the purposes of this paper it will be applied to them specifically. Furthermore, appearing in the literature are details of what could potentially, or what has already, been successful implementations of such policies. By modifying its focus, the European Union has seemed to lead the way in applying its more development-focused approach, to offset the growing hostility towards migrants from large EU-member states, despite labor market and demographic issues widely known by experts. The European Commission has issued a couple of documents that highlight this focus on human capital and the transfer of skills in 2005. One of these documents, Communication on Migration and Development, “proposes that circular migration policies could play a key role in fostering the transfer of skills to the developing world.”[xlviii] In the UK in 2004 one such document also mentions this as a means for poverty reduction and fighting off illegal migration. “The Committee’s advice also goes beyond that of other agencies by suggesting that circular migration schemes could act as incentive for sending countries to assume more responsibility for countering illegal migration.”[xlix] It becomes apparent throughout the debate that stakeholders are being summoned to the table and each is being asked to take a more formal, structured approach to tackling this policy area.
Consistent throughout the literature are widely known, and for the most part, accepted criteria for successfully implementing circular migration to produce a “3-win” outcome. Among these are a history of migrating, mobility partnerships, legal institutions or agencies, and finally producing strict bilateral agreements between sending and receiving countries. When two countries have a history of migration, there is less risk involved as experience can offset the problematic area of adjustment. Mobility partnerships suggest the need for a moderately relaxed visa policy between two countries to allow efficient and timely ordering of work permits. In each country an institution that is able to legally enforce any breach of a bilateral agreement serves as a potential deterrent for abuse. A lack in any of these areas has the potential to bring the wheels of circular migration to a stop and with it a country’s development.
Early indications of a circular migration policy are surfacing and showing mixed responses. By mixed response, included is both low and high-skilled labor migration. New Zealand’s implementation of a circular migration program for its agricultural sector has caught the eyes of certain scholars. “A distinctive feature of the New Zealand Program is that it emphasizes evaluating the program from its starting point.”[l] This program as a result has raised awareness amongst prominent development economists from the significant positive spillovers into Pacific Island countries. On the contrary, circular migration of the high-skilled has been met with a higher degree of difficulty. However, it is commonly known that China and India are key outliers in these instances and the contributions made from frequent returns to home countries has played a significant factor in development.
The first part in approaching the research question is to adequately define the concept of circular migration. Each institution and government seems to have their own established wording, and so using common features among them, the following will be used to differentiate it from seasonal/temporary and permanent migration: a form of strictly regulated repeat migration through bilateral agreements established between sending and receiving countries. This differs from other forms in the past as institutions, such as the IOM and government agencies assume more of a regulatory role, as opposed to private firms exerting influence in the selection process and visa applications.
Distinct features in this definition are what separates it from other forms and suggest its effectiveness. 1) Historical ties between each country allow for a better pool of migrants in which an appropriate selection can occur. For clarification, a colonial historical context is not necessarily what is assumed here. Rather, any prior movement between workers in either country is relevant. 2) Mobility partnership is a technical aspect suggesting the level of difficulty in obtaining appropriate documentation (ie, visas, permits) for a less rigid flow to and from countries often found to be a significant impediment. 3) Institutional leverage to enforce bilateral agreements legally binding two countries. This is a key factor as assuming that only a bilateral agreement is enforced and firms or private employment agencies have a decisive role has proven exploitative. With these distinct factors playing vital roles in separating a circular migration policy from those prior, each will be elaborated upon during the final paper.
Against the backdrop of the neoclassical theoretical framework, we begin to understand how circular migration can facilitate the preferences of migrants, labor market deficiencies, and developing countries. Recent findings are suggesting that migrant preferences have changed from not only economic-related incentives, but also social incentives as well. Many migration specialists have even arrived at the consensus that the neoclassical migration theory has been disapproved and people move for a variety of reasons, rather than just economic well being. Selecting this particular framework allows us to better understand how circular migration can meet the preferences demanded by each stakeholder through a more constant satisfying, rather than permanent residence in a particular place. If we make the assumption that each stakeholder, and probably more, would actually prefer to see the developing country grow, circular migration seems an appropriate method to do so. If implemented properly, human capital away from family is limited for the migrant in the developing country, by allowing for possible skills to be transferred in a receiving country on a more frequent basis. From a receiving country’s perspective, a reduction in illegal immigration by creating a strong incentive for returns satisfies the preferences for stake holders in that country.
Subsequent to the concept’s definition and a theoretical framework to approach this policy area, the selection of case studies rather few currently. As it is a relatively new approach to migration and development, cases selected since 2006 or 2007 will be pulled for investigation to determine whether the effects that some suggest are having a significant impact on development. For the purposes of this paper we are concerned with two primary areas significant to development: education and small-medium enterprise development. Logical reasoning might suggest that as both fiscal and human capital is in constant rotation from circular migration, opportunities arising should occur from this. A closer look at two cases: Kiev, Ukraine and Aragatsevan, Armenia will be analyzed. Though others may occur, at the time of this writing, as new cases come in from evaluation others could possibly be inserted into the paper. The selection of these developing countries for our dependant variable has some variance – though more would have been preferable. The small village in Armenia within close proximity to Russia, as compared to Kiev being about the same distance from Russia – as it relates to migration – does suggest a decent amount of variation – large capital city versus small rural village. What will be of interest is change over time in the conditions to the dependant variable that has allowed circular migration to surface.
Particularly, we want to know what has occurred since the adoption of circular migration as a policy tool from these bilateral agreements. As it relates to the data measurement in each of the aforementioned countries, the following data points will be analyzed based on the availability from international organizations. Each element of statistical data will be compared to the country average prior to policy implementation, while attempting to control for any exogenous variables that may have played an underlying role, such as political transition, war, or natural disaster, which may have triggered an influx in out migration and distorted the data.
Regarding education, have enrollment rates in universities and schools risen across countries, or have they declined? Has the literacy rate seen any significant increase? Has there been any improvement in infrastructure? Concerning SME development, has the number of registered start-up businesses significantly increased? The justification for this, is that if both human and fiscal capital area ‘circulating’ through the country, would it be implausible to see a transfer of this into the private sector? If not, why? Are we now seeing both fiscal and human capital subsidizing a developing countries economy, whereas before it was just remittances?
Much of what will be argued is based off the availability and accuracy of data. Prominent scholars and economists a few years ago have cited this in their work; however, in making this reference, it usually took the form of “global data”. Fortunately for policymakers certain case studies have recently occurred at a “corridor-level” which provide valuable data. Given that institutions now in use provide some statistical results for theirs, and the public, we can begin to see some patterns emerging; however, inference of anything is still subject to more intense scrutiny; particularly as it relates to human capital and skill transfer. The World Bank has exposed what a valuable asset remittances area to a country’s GDP; however, more evaluation is needed into which receiving countries are providing more skill transfer mechanisms to immigrants upon reentry into their home countries.
 Angenedt, Steffen. Circular Migration A Sustainable Concept for Migration Policy. June 2007. P.1
 Agunias, Dovelyn and Newland Kathleen. Circular Migration and Development: Trends, Policy Routes, and Ways Forward. Migration Policy Institute. April 2007.
 Venturini, Alessandra. Circular Migration As An Employment Strategy For Mediterranean Countries. European University Institute. P.3
 Heckmann, Friedrich, et al. Guest Worker Programs and Circular Migration: What Works? The German Marshall Fund of the United States. 2009.
 Vertovec, Steven. Circular Migration: the way forward in global policy?. 2007. International Migration Institute. P.4
 Vertovec, pp 4,5
 Newland, Kathleen, et al. Learning by Doing: Experiences of Circular Migration. 2008. Migration Policy Institute. P.9
Survey (Armenian copies are available upon request)
- How much do you earn monthly?
- How much money comes from abroad?
- Please be specific, which of the following is spent on:
- Other, please specify
- Which relatives are abroad and what do they do for work?
- How frequent do they visit?
See attachment for Russian Copy
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[iv] Tilly, P. 7.
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[vi] Ozkul, Derya. Circular Migration Schemes: Renewed Interests of the Destination countries. P. 2 https://cream.conference-services.net/resources/952/2371/pdf/MECSC2011_0086_paper.pdf
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[ix] Ozkul, P.12
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[xviii] Mai, P. 12.
[xix] Enriquez, Carmen Gonzalez and Ramon, Miquel Reynes. Circular Migration between Spain and Morrocco: Something more than agricultural work? European University Institute. P.1
[xx] Enriquez, et al. P. 6.
[xxi] Enriquez, P. 12.
[xxii] Eriquez, P. 13.
[xxiii] Enriquez, P. 12.
[xxv] Duvell, Frank. Ukraine, Europe’s Mexico? Central and East European Migration. P.7http://www.compas.ox.ac.uk/fileadmin/files/pdfs/Non_WP_pdfs/Transit_Migration_in_Ukraine/Ukraine_Country%20Report_1of3.pdf
[xxvi] Duvell, P. 7.
[xxvii] Icduygu, Ahmet. Circular Migration and Turkey An Overview of the Past and Present – Some Demo-Economic Implications. CARIM. 2008. P.1 http://cadmus.eui.eu/bitstream/handle/1814/8331/CARIM_AS&N_2008_10.pdf?sequence=1
[xxviii] Mansoor, Ali. M, Quillin, Bryce. Migration and Remittances: Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. World Bank. 2006. P. 42
[xxix] Mansoor, et al. P. 104.
[xxx] Mansoor et. al, PP 42-43.
[xxxii] Mansoor, et al. PP 14-15.
[xxxvii] Mansoor, et al. P. 3
[xxxix] Brady, P. 23.
[xl] Brady, p. 21.
[xliv] Angenedt, Steffen. Circular Migration A Sustainable Concept for Migration Policy. June 2007. P.1
[xlv] Agunias, Dovelyn and Newland Kathleen. Circular Migration and Development: Trends, Policy Routes, and Ways Forward. Migration Policy Institute. April 2007.
[xlvi] Venturini, Alessandra. Circular Migration As An Employment Strategy For Mediterranean Countries. European University Institute. P.3
[xlvii] Heckmann, Friedrich, et al. Guest Worker Programs and Circular Migration: What Works? The German Marshall Fund of the United States. 2009.
[xlviii] Vertovec, Steven. Circular Migration: the way forward in global policy?. 2007. International Migration Institute. P.4
[xlix] Vertovec, pp 4,5
[l] Newland, Kathleen, et al. Learning by Doing: Experiences of Circular Migration. 2008. Migration Policy Institute. P.9